ISIS expanded its operations in Somalia in 2018: Analysis

Washington- Over the course of 2018, the Islamic State in Somalia (ISS) significantly expanded its operations since its first claimed attack in April 2016. In addition to the amplification of its military claims, ISS has also expanded into more areas traditionally associated with al Qaeda’s group in Somalia, Shabaab.

According to data compiled by FDD’s Long War Journal, the jihadist group has claimed 106 attacks in Somalia since April 2016. In 2018 alone, ISS claimed 66 operations.

While this tally is less consequential than other areas in which the Islamic State operates, this number is more than the total number of claimed operations in Somalia in 2016 and 2017 combined. These claims were collected from Islamic State propaganda channels, such as Nashir and Amaq News, on Telegram.

It is important to note that it is unclear exactly how many claims made by the group are legitimate, as very few are independently corroborated by Somali media. In some cases, the Islamic State does release photo or video evidence of its crimes, but in most instances it does not.

Much like previous years, ISS largely conducted its activities in Puntland and in southern Somalia. 

Whereas Afgooye accounted for 38% of all ISS operations in 2017, this was reduced almost in half to 18% in 2018. Mogadishu, on the other hand, hosted almost 58% of all ISS violence in 2018, which more than doubled from 24% the previous year.

In Puntland, the levels of ISS military activity somewhat reduced compared to last year. In 2018, its Puntland claims only represented 22% of its total claims; whereas last year, it accounted for 38.1%. This reduction is likely due to Puntland military efforts against the group, as well as ISS focusing its efforts on other fronts.

ISS has been moving into other areas of society in Puntland, according to local officials.

Assassinations have remained the favorite tactic of the organization. With established hit squads inside Mogadishu and Bosaso, these operations accounted for 85% of its total claimed attacks this year. While many of these instances are difficult to independently verify, the existence of ISS hit squads in Mogadishu is all but confirmed.

However, the renewed al-Shabaab efforts against the rival jihadist group is a good indication that ISS is indeed expanding more into southern Somalia That said, Shabaab’s proven track record in dealing with any potential threat to its monopoly on jihadist violence will likely not bode well for ISS in the long run.

In terms of specific targets, Somali security services (which includes Somali and Puntland military, police, and Puntland intelligence officers) were the main target with 52% of all claims directed towards them.

Somali intelligence forces, NISA, were the second most targeted with 25% and the Somali government 19%. Keeping with the track record established in the last two years, ISS remains hardly focused on AMISOM or other foreign troops inside Somalia. Only one claim in 2018 was against the African Union troops.

Source: Long War Journal, US.